Strong momentum in China's market Global demand for photovoltaics breaks the 100GW mark
China continues to reign supreme among the world's largest PV demand markets, and demand for 2017 is expected to increase substantially in response to the rush of installation of distributed PV systems. This will push global PV demand to exceed 100GW to 100.4GW for the first time, with an annual growth rate of 26%. %. This kinetic energy can sustain at least until 2019 under the Chinese government's multi-faceted support for photovoltaics, making global demand all come to the level of 100 GW.
The reporter pointed out that the Chinese PV market’s demand in 2017 is exceeding expectation, and the installation volume in the first eight months is estimated to reach 39 GW. There are still the second batch of “leadership plan” and the first batch of “PV assisted poverty indicators” in the last four months. It will be completed one after another. At the same time, the market is rumors that the Chinese government will cut the subsidies for distributed photovoltaics since 2018, and in the premise that the market will produce an expectant mentality, it will bring another wave of seizures. The reporter estimates that, including photovoltaic poverty alleviation, the annual installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic systems will look at 22GW, pushing the overall Chinese market to 48GW, and the cumulative installed capacity will soar to 125.42GW.
In July, the National Energy Administration of China announced a new version of the “13th Five-Year Plan” photovoltaic index with a total size of 86.5 GW. At the same time, the Chinese government’s policy of providing state subsidies and preferential networking rights for China’s poverty alleviation has made the prospects of distributed PV more promising. It is estimated that the annual demand will reach 15GW from 2018 to 2020, and the cumulative installed capacity in 2020 will look at 250GW.
U.S. Demand Decreases by 15%, and Section 201 Continues to Add Market Uncertainty
The explosive demand in the Chinese market will push the global installation volume in 2017 to reach 100.4 GW, again setting a new record high. Judging from the installed capacity, China is the market leader, with the United States ranking second, third, and fourth with 12.5 GW, India's 10 GW, and Japan's 6.8 GW. The top four markets will account for more than 75 percent of global demand.
Among them, due to changes in the investment tax reduction (ITC) policy in the US market, demand this year is expected to fall by about 15% from the previous year; however, in 2018, the demand will change significantly between 5.5 and 10GW depending on the result of the 201 clause. India will formally replace Japan this year as the third largest market in the world, and will look bullish every year in the future. In Japan, since the FIT law was implemented in April this year, there are approximately 20 GW of cases that need to be completed within three years in order to maintain the right to connect. Therefore, demand in the next three years is expected to remain stable.
The reporter further analyzed that in view of the regional market, Asia, led by thChinese market, has an absolute leading position in the global market. Looking at the 2017 full-year supply chain, under the stimulation of demand in the Chinese market and US 201 terms, it is expected that there will be no obvious off-season for the whole year, and only the end of September to mid-October will be the period of relatively low demand for pull goods this year.